Pakistan's Logistical Nightmare

Pakistan makes the news almost every day now.  Headlines like: Another Bomb Blast in Peshawar, Army Assaults Taliban Stronghold, and so on.  What doesn't make headlines is the logistical problems of Pakistan's Army arising from a relatively simple matter: small arms.

Pakistan's wide-array of small arms is a great look into its history of military partners.  The countries of origin include, the US, Russia, China, Germany, Belgium.  Nominally, this is not an issue, but in actuality this variety of small arms fires a variety of cartridges using a variety of magazines.  Most of the Chinese and Russian weapons fire a 7.62 x 39mm round, while the Belgian and US rifles fire a 5.56 x 45mm round.  The German G3 fires a 7.62 x 51mm round which is not compatible with the Russian and Chinese rifles.  Each of these different sized rounds has a different magazine type as well.

If soldiers in battle cannot share ammunition or magazines with each other this can have the effect of being a negative combat-multiplier, i.e. if a soldier is afraid of running out of ammunition because he/she knows that the soldier next to him/her cannot share ammo, they will shoot less.  This problem is compounded by the fact that an already complex resupply process is now further complicated.  Logistics personnel must not just bring ammo, they must to bring the right quantities of three separate types of ammo, not counting light or heavy machine guns or any other weapon systems.

The Pakistani Government doesn't have the resources to train and familiarize its troops with the nine different assault rifles it equips.  They would do much better to decrease the variety of rifles/ammunition size and thus remove a negative combat multiplier, making their troops more efficient in the field and easier to resupply.

Pakistani soldier with G3 (7.62x51 NATO)
(Courtesy of http://johnibii.wordpress.com/category/mohammed-alam-khattak/)

 With Type 56/AK-47 (7.62x39 mm)
(Courtesy of Pakistan Defence Forum)

With FN2000 (5.56x45 NATO)

(Courtesy of Pakistan Defence Forum)

Long-Run Counter Insurgency Sri Lanka

In late May of this year Sri Lanka's Government declared victory over the Tamil Tigers ending a 26 year long civil war.  Engagements in this conflict ranged from classic hit-and-run insurgency to pitched stand-and-fight battles.  One of the most sophisticated rebel movements in the world the Tamil Tigers had an army, navy, and fledgling air force.  They also pioneered/refined the widespread use of suicide bombers.  According to the BBC the conflict started after ethnic Tamils felt discriminated against during successive Sinhalese governments.  This leaves multiple scenarios which could play out in Sri Lanka to the population's benefit or woe.

Scenario One, "Best Case":

In this scenario the current government and successive government initiate massive reconstruction projects in the former Tiger's territory, and provides security.  In addition the physical changes that reconstruction brings in this scenario the government increases education, economic opportunities and most importantly representation in successive governments.  In the long run if any escaped Tamil Tigers make it back to Sri Lanka they will find a public unwilling to take up arms again, because all the grievances that existed previously have been removed.

This scenario is not just a "best case" but seems to be the direction in which the government is going.  USAID is running a program to help rehabilitate former combatants, while the Chinese government has provided equipment at concession prices to the tune of  ~$17 Billion.  In addition the government has acquired five additional for a total of 19 de-mining machines to speed up the removal of unexploded ordinance/mines.  While this last fact might seem small, the worldwide economic costs of loss of farmland and medical costs to people disabled by unexploded ordinance or mines, is huge.  According to the UN:

"From another standpoint, landmines often stop the economy of a nation. Most minefields are unmarked and cannot be distinguished from the surrounding countryside. Generally, the first sign the people in an area have of the existence of a minefiled is when a friend or family member is injured or killed. Since this is such a serious matter, local civilians are forced to avoid any area in which a person is known to have died due to a landmine. This means that the explosion of even one mine may make a road, playground or a rice paddy unusable. In areas where there is a shortage of food, people are sometimes forced to take the risk and work the fields that might be mined."

Emphasis must be placed on the youth and young adult groups because they are the potential combatants for the next conflict.  This rehabilitation movement is one that will last multiple generations and will be costly, but will remove the chance of Tamil Tiger resurgence.  Also the economic incentives should result in higher incomes for Tamils which will ultimately increase revenues to the state through taxes.


Scenario Two "Most Dangerous"

This scenario is essentially a do nothing scenario.  Having been successful militarily the government demines the north while not actually changing the socio-political landscape.  Representation of Tamil minorities remains low and the north and east remains impoverished and ripe for Tiger resurgence.  While at this stage in the game this scenario seems unlikely a change in government could easily roll back all the progress that has been done.  Many Sri Lankans will look at the expenditure of the government on the north and east and may feel resentful that the perceived wealth is not being spread on their communities.  These citizens would forget what the costs of the 20 year conflict were.

The government must remember that the logistics and financial network of the Tigers still exists and is waiting for new leadership cadres, which will be formed from today's youth and young adults.  The prejudices of the parents will be passed on the children and tensions will rise to the tinderbox level where one miscalculation will result in widespread unrest and subsequent repression. 

Scenario Three "The Middle Ground"

In this case either the present government loses interest in reconstruction, education, economic opportunities, etc., or a successive government rolls back many of the initiatives started by the present one.  While the region might be restive in the short-run a lack of change would make the population receptive to separatist sentiment.  The Tigers would be reborn in later generations and the conflict would be renewed at great cost to all Sri Lankans. 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2405347.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8056752.stm

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_091/Oct1256910287RA.html

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_091/Oct1256912997CH.html

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_091/Oct1256738892RA.html

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_091/Oct1256737501KA.html

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_091/Nov1257348797RA.html